The path to 1,000 downloads per episode
The goal is 1,000 listeners by year’s end, and I will blog my progress.
In this Heist Report
Season Two Progress
A Timelapse Illustration of Symphony by
The goal is 1,000 listeners
Season two progress began in earnest this last week. It’s going a little slow, deliberately, (read my 2023 annual reflection), but I am well in to the initial arrangement of Chapter 5. Remember, The Thief starts out as a recording from a Dungeons & Dragons game, so “initial arrangement” is the step where I edit down the two or three-hour session into the main story. Follow The Thief on Patreon for free for more behind-the-scenes progress updates.
A timelapse illustration of Symphony by
, against Sisi’s description of Symphony. This is cool as heck.The goal is 1,000 listeners
In my 2023 Annual Reflection, I wrote that The Thief’s slow-to-emerge product/market fit demanded attention. As a slow-to-produce and expensive story, I must choose how much time and money to spend to produce a podcast that will likely never be in the black.
And what might that look like? While I share actual numbers with my wittan on Patreon, in an advertising-only model where the average advertisement CPM is $25, we would need something like 20,000 downloads per episode to break even. So, I think I will just hand-wave that out of my mind.
But that is a target, and — I don’t know — Saturday-morning me loves a game.
Traction
In “The Phases of Podcast Growth”,
names the trough of growth between 100 and 1,000 downloads per episode the “traction phase.” There is some validation that The Thief’s audience is out there — award nods, glowing reviews, consistent charting in niche genres — butTo move past the thousand-download-per-episode milestone, you’re going to need to get savvier with your marketing, both in the way you position and create your show, as well as how you get it in front of new potential listeners. … While the core idea might have been validated, there’s a lot of work to be done to refine it into a show makes the most of your marketing.
Jeremy’s advice rings true.
Walk before running
I have paid for a lot of advertisements but some axioms need some real research and qualification:
Does my pitch work?
Is The Thief even findable if sought
Is my audience who I even think they are?
This is pretty interesting.
I’ve already been experimenting with my answer to “What is this show?” My latest iteration is
A fully cast, low-fantasy mystery podcast, starting with the catalytic arrest of a City Watchman, leaving all to the only person he trusts: an undermarket draw-latch named "Symphony."
I don’t call The Thief an actual play — which it is — nor do I call it an audio drama. I don’t mention Dungeons and Dragons because some early anecdotal observations were that, well, people who listen to actual plays may prefer the table-relationship to the story, and The Thief all but strips out the former.
But this is more gut-feel than science, although I do have some data from prior ads that I mean to investigate.
Rough plan
I may write about this later but I’ve largely written off the value of organic social media marketing to [my] podcast growth. The CAC — or cost of new listener acquisition — is poor unless you hit the virality lotto. A good ad has exponentially more listener conversion than a good TikTok.
But I’m not doing myself any favors if I don’t question the - ah - “goodness" of that ad. I need to do the work.
The assets — the logo, the copy — resonate with the audience I want
The audience can find the show if they look it up
They can discover the show by looking up certain keywords
Ads mean I must trust the algorithm to deliver to the right people. But, there are other strategies for finding that audience. Namely, collaborate with folks who already have an audience that would like the Thief.
More on that, later.